John McCain – 263
In a moment of acute pessimism, I came to the conclusion that white working class Joe Sixpacks are never going to vote for the Big O. Never. Not even if he picked Johnnie Appleseed, Tom Landry, or Al Bundy from “Married With Children” as his running mate. Joe Sixpacks have already decided that Barack is unpatriotic, elitist, Muslim, eats babies and just may accept Indonesia into the Union as the 51st state.
That means no Indiana and no Ohio. Assuming Big Mac picks everyone’s favorite leathery local weatherman lookalike Mitt Romney as his running mate, I think his pop’s roots as a former Governor combined with Detroit (or DetRIOT as it should more appropriately be spelled) coming off of a bad experience with an African American Democratic elected official will be just enough to push Michigan into the
So how does the Big O do it without Michigan and Ohio? He does what a man who has ordered a salad for dinner does—he picks up the other guy’s scraps.
McCain may have the white working class, but he’s not going to be able to eat up all the states that George W. was able to devour in 2004. His ground game isn’t well-organized enough, he doesn’t appeal enough to the evangelicals who elected W in the first place, and he’s 112 years old. Barack better bring a doggie bag, because there are going to be a whole lot of scraps to pick up. Let’s face it: old people are messy when they eat!
Give Obama all the states John Kerry won in 2004 except for Michigan and you have 235 electoral votes. Throw in Iowa and New Mexico, which Gore won in 2000 and most polls have Obama leading by very comfortable margins. While Obama is leading much less comfortably in Colorado and Virginia, he’s still ahead for the most part, and when you look at both states’ recent trend of electing a Democrat into any available office they can find from Senator to dog catcher, they seem to be ready to come out of the GOP closet to their parents as big, swishy liberal states.
Believe it or not, this gives Obama 269 electoral votes—exactly half of the Electoral College. While it may not be enough to give him the official win, it’ll be enough to make him the 44th President of the United States of America, as a tie would take the vote to the certainly Democratic 111th Congress. However, that probably won’t be necessary, as if the Big O was picking up the Big Mac’s scraps before, now it’s time for him to pick up his crumbs.
Montana, North Dakota and Alaska are all states that only have three electoral votes (the fewest a state can technically have) yet they are dramatically overrepresented. Barack is looking competitive in polls in all these states and their populations are so small that superior voter mobilization at the grassroots level by the Obama camp could make all the difference. I’m betting The One can pick up two out of the three, giving me my magic number of 275.
So please, try to look surprised on election day when all this unfolds exactly as I’ve foretold and secures my place in the history books as the 21st century Nostradamus (or at least the 21st century Miss Cleo.)
Remember, this is only an exhibition. This is not a competition. Please, no wagering.
Posts
